Outlook Anumaan on Modi Impact?

Modi Impact?

• 187*Aggregate NDA tally for 2014 elections, based on on-ground predictions by experts sought out by Outlook in all 29 states

* BJP + Shiv Sena + SAD + INLD

 Modi’s tally does not look better that that of Atal Behari Vajpayee in 1998: 183 seats. It leaves him 90-100 seats short for government formation. And for Modi, a polarising figure, the prospect of attracting allies is far bleaker than it was for Vajpayee in 1998. So, for all the hype pumped up by the media, his publicity machinery and corporate backers, Modi’s prime ministerial climb remains a steep gradient. Remember Vajpayee in 1996? Despite a sizeable saffron surge, he was unable to form a government.

North Of the 154 seats in eight states, BJP-NDA can at best hope to pick up 61 seats. Uttar Pradesh, where Modi’s right-hand-man Amit Shah is in charge, is the great imponderable.

West Of the 101 seats in its four states, the BJP-NDA can pick up about 56 seats. In both Maharashtra and Gujarat, the room for improvement is limited.

South Of the 129 seats in these four states, the BJP will get less than 30 seats. What it will lose in Karnataka due to its diminution, it’s unlikely to make up in Andhra Pradesh.

East Of the 153 seats in 13 states, BJP can at best hope to pick up some 40 seats. On its own, it might gain somewhat in Bihar but Modi’s entry has already cost it an NDA partner in JD(U

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